Nigeria may be entering a delicate but meaningful growth phase, as projections for 2026 point to an economy that is stabilising enough to expand , though not without constraints. According to PwC Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026, the country’s real Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow by about 4.3 per cent, a figure that reflects cautious optimism rather than exuberance.
The projection places Nigeria broadly in line with multilateral expectations. The World Bank, in its latest Africa’s Pulse report, forecasts growth of around 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2027, underpinned by rising activity in information and communications technology, financial services, and real estate. Together, these forecasts suggest a convergence of views that Nigeria’s economy is finding firmer footing after years of volatility.
Stability First, Growth Next
PwC’s outlook is anchored on a key assumption: that recent improvements in macroeconomic stability will hold. The firm notes that inflation is expected to moderate gradually, while the naira is projected to remain broadly stable. External reserves have strengthened, and foreign-exchange reforms have helped reduce distortions that previously clouded pricing, investment decisions, and access to capital.
These gains, achieved largely in 2025 through tighter monetary management and FX market adjustments, are already reshaping how businesses plan for the future. According to PwC, companies are reassessing investment timelines, cost structures, and funding strategies in response to a more predictable operating environment.
Yet, the outlook remains far from complacent. Persistent fiscal constraints continue to limit public spending flexibility, placing greater pressure on efficiency, disciplined capital allocation, and balance-sheet resilience across both the public and private sectors.
Where Growth Is Likely to Come From
PwC’s analysis suggests that Nigeria’s growth momentum in 2026 will not be evenly distributed. Expansion is expected to remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors, particularly those less exposed to household purchasing power constraints. ICT, finance, real estate, and segments of the digital economy are likely to outperform, while sectors dependent on broad-based consumer demand may face headwinds from affordability pressures.
This uneven growth pattern, PwC argues, raises the premium on sector selection. Businesses that align capital deployment with areas of structural growth, rather than cyclical rebounds, are more likely to benefit from the evolving economic landscape.
The Strategic Imperatives for Business Leaders
Against this backdrop, PwC Nigeria outlines a clear agenda for corporate leaders heading into 2026. The firm emphasises the need for selective investment bets across attractive sectors and regions, coupled with rigorous scenario planning to manage macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks.
Digital transformation also features prominently. PwC points to accelerating adoption of digital tools and responsible artificial intelligence as a competitive necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, as reforms move from policy design to execution, regulatory and tax compliance are becoming more critical to sustaining long-term value.
Seven Forces Shaping 2026
PwC’s Economic Outlook 2026 identifies seven interconnected themes that will define Nigeria’s economic performance in the year ahead. These include the effectiveness of monetary policy, fiscal sustainability and reform execution, global economic and geopolitical conditions, domestic security and social pressures, uneven sectoral growth, consumer affordability challenges, and the expanding influence of the digital economy and AI.
On the global front, PwC projects world economic growth at around 3.1 per cent, with merchandise trade growth slowing to approximately 0.5 per cent. For Nigeria, this global environment matters. Oil prices, capital flows, and access to foreign exchange will remain key transmission channels influencing growth and FX liquidity.
Domestically, while improved monetary effectiveness has reduced volatility and clarified pricing signals, unresolved fiscal pressures, security concerns, and weak household demand continue to shape sector outcomes.
From Stability to Sustainable Growth
Commenting on the outlook, PwC Nigeria’s Country Senior Partner, Sam Abu, notes that the central question is no longer whether stability has improved, but how it is converted into durable growth. He describes the current environment as one that offers businesses greater predictability for planning and investment, provided they position themselves strategically.
Similarly, PwC Nigeria’s Partner and Chief Economist, Olusegun Zaccheaus, underscores that Nigeria’s growth prospects will depend on disciplined capital allocation and realistic expectations. With global trade slowing and domestic constraints persisting, growth is likely to be steady rather than spectacular but potentially more sustainable.
Taken together, PwC’s 4.3 per cent forecast is less about headline numbers and more about what lies beneath them: an economy cautiously transitioning from turbulence toward stability, and from stability toward opportunity. How well Nigeria navigates that transition in 2026 may define its growth trajectory for the rest of the decade.
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