For decades, Nigeria’s vast natural gas reserves have powered homes, flared into the atmosphere, or been exported in raw form with limited domestic transformation. What has lagged behind is the systematic conversion of that gas into industrial products that deepen the economy and generate sustainable export earnings. That gap, regulators now argue, is beginning to close and fertiliser, particularly urea, is emerging as a test case for Nigeria’s midstream ambitions.
By 2028, Nigeria is expected to join the small but influential group of countries exporting urea at scale. The projection, made by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), reflects growing confidence that recent investments in gas-based manufacturing are shifting the country away from its long-standing dependence on imported fertiliser inputs.
At the centre of this transition is the midstream segment of the oil and gas industry, the often-overlooked link between upstream production and downstream consumption. In Nigeria’s case, this segment is increasingly viewed as the engine room for industrialisation. Processing natural gas into fertiliser, petrochemicals and other secondary derivatives not only adds value locally but also anchors broader manufacturing and agricultural growth.
According to NMDPRA chief executive Saidu Mohammed, Nigeria’s continued importation of products like urea no longer makes economic sense. The country has the feedstock, the market and, increasingly, the infrastructure to meet domestic demand and look outward. Large-scale private investments, particularly in fertiliser production, are already redefining the landscape and laying the groundwork for export capacity.
Facilities such as Indorama Eleme Fertiliser and Chemicals Limited in Rivers State illustrate this shift. Once seen as isolated industrial successes, these plants are now part of a growing ecosystem of gas-based manufacturing that includes new and expanding complexes across the country. As these projects scale up, regulators believe Nigeria could achieve surplus production within the next two years, placing urea exports firmly within reach before the end of the decade.
However, ambition alone will not deliver this outcome. Mohammed estimates that between $30 billion and $50 billion in fresh investment is required to fully reposition Nigeria as a hub for oil, gas and value-added derivatives. This capital is needed not only for new plants, but also for pipelines, processing infrastructure, logistics and supporting industrial ecosystems that allow products to move efficiently from factory gates to global markets.
Rivers State, where the regulator recently inspected several midstream and downstream facilities, offers a microcosm of both the opportunity and the challenge. The state hosts some of Nigeria’s most critical energy assets such as refineries, gas processing plants and manufacturing facilities, making it an ideal vantage point for assessing how policy translates into industrial output. For the NMDPRA, these inspections are as much about listening as they are about oversight.
The regulator’s approach, Mohammed emphasised, is to act as an enabler rather than a bottleneck. Creating a stable, predictable regulatory environment is seen as essential to encouraging existing operators to expand and new investors to commit capital. Fertiliser plants, petrochemical complexes and other gas-based industries, he argued, are exactly the kind of projects Nigeria must multiply if it is to move beyond crude oil dependence.
Industry leaders share that view but caution that regulation must evolve alongside the sector. Indorama Eleme’s chief executive, Munish Jindal, noted that while regulatory understanding of midstream manufacturing has improved significantly over the past two decades, some rules were designed with upstream oil production in mind and no longer reflect the operational realities of large industrial plants. He said targeted exemptions and updates could help unlock further efficiency without undermining oversight.
Beyond industrial policy, the implications of urea exports extend into agriculture, trade and foreign exchange. Fertiliser availability remains a critical constraint on farm productivity across Nigeria and much of West Africa. A domestic industry capable of meeting local demand while exporting surplus could stabilise supply, reduce price volatility and position Nigeria as a regional supplier to neighbouring markets.
The road to 2028 is not without risk though, as global fertiliser markets are volatile, capital costs are high, and infrastructure gaps persist. Yet the direction of travel is clear especially with gas-based manufacturing gaining momentum and regulatory attention increasingly focused on value addition, urea is fast becoming a symbol of a broader recalibration of Nigeria’s energy economy.
If the current pace of investment is sustained and policy keeps step with industrial realities, Nigeria’s first major urea exports may ultimately be remembered not just as a commercial milestone, but as evidence that the country is finally beginning to capture more value from the resources beneath its soil.
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