IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Outlook to 4.4% as Reforms Gain Traction

Nigeria’s economic prospects for 2026 have improved, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raising its growth projection to 4.4 percent, up from the 4.2 percent estimate issued in October 2025. The upward revision signals a more favourable assessment of Nigeria’s medium-term outlook, even as global economic conditions remain mixed.

The updated forecast was released in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, which reviews economic developments across countries and regions. According to the Fund, Nigeria’s stronger outlook is not an isolated case but part of a broader reassessment of economic performance across Sub-Saharan Africa, where growth expectations have also been revised upward.

The IMF explained that Nigeria’s improved projection comes after a period of intense economic adjustment. In its October 2025 report, the Fund had expressed concern over high inflation, fiscal pressures, and deep structural weaknesses weighing on the economy. Since then, Nigerian authorities have continued policy reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, restoring macroeconomic balance, and improving productivity across key sectors.

These ongoing reforms, the IMF noted, are gradually supporting economic stability and helping to lift growth expectations for the medium term. However, the Fund stressed that structural reforms remain critical for sustaining growth in Nigeria and other emerging and developing economies, particularly reforms that enhance productivity, broaden the revenue base, and reduce economic vulnerabilities.

Nigeria’s upgraded outlook also reflects wider regional trends. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth for 2025 has been revised upward from 4.0 percent to 4.1 percent, while the 2026 forecast has been increased from 4.3 percent to 4.4 percent. This points to a broadly shared recovery across the region rather than country-specific gains alone.

At the global level, the IMF projects economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, largely consistent with the estimated 3.3 percent expansion recorded in 2025. The Fund said the global outlook reflects a balance between downside risks from shifting trade policies and positive drivers such as technology-led investments, including artificial intelligence, supported by relatively accommodative financial conditions.

The IMF also expects global inflation to continue easing, with headline inflation projected to decline from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026, before falling further to 3.4 percent in 2027. This downward trend is expected to provide greater policy flexibility for governments and central banks worldwide.

Overall, the IMF’s decision to raise Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast from 4.2 percent to 4.4 percent underscores growing confidence in the country’s reform path. 

While challenges persist, the revised outlook suggests that consistent policy implementation and sustained structural reforms could strengthen Nigeria’s growth trajectory in the years ahead.