Nigeria’s economy is poised for a stronger finish in 2025, with Afrinvest analysts projecting that Gross Domestic Product could expand between 4.3% and 4.5% in the fourth quarter. The outlook builds on recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics, which showed real GDP rising 4.0% year-on-year in Q3 2025, outperforming the 3.9% recorded in Q3 2024, though slightly below the 4.2% seen in Q2.
Afrinvest attributes its forecast to seasonal growth drivers, including late harvest activity and festive-period spending, alongside improved foreign exchange supply and gradually easing price pressures, which are expected to support business sentiment and consumer purchasing power.
Nominal GDP also climbed sharply to N113.6 trillion in Q3, up 18.1% from N96.2 trillion a year earlier, reflecting the effect of higher price levels. Growth was anchored by the non-oil economy, which contributed 96.6% of total output, while oil accounted for just 3.4%.
The oil sector itself grew 5.8% year-on-year, helped by efforts to stabilise production and curb theft, with average output at 1.64 million barrels per day, higher than the same period last year. Agriculture expanded 3.8%, buoyed by harvests and higher export earnings; industry excluding oil rose 3.2%, showing softer momentum; while services remained the dominant driver, growing 4.2% on the back of ICT, finance and real estate activity.
Trade benefited from FX stability, rising 2.0%, while real estate eased slightly to 3.5%, reflecting weaker demand. Analysts caution that uncertainties around oil output, fiscal constraints, insecurity, and tight monetary conditions could limit the extent of the Q4 rebound.
Even so, Afrinvest suggests that Nigeria’s non-oil resilience and stronger holiday-driven spending could provide a favourable base for improved expansion heading into 2026.
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