The naira has emerged among Africa’s more resilient currencies after weathering a period of significant pressure on the continent’s foreign exchange markets, with the World Bank recording a maximum depreciation of 2.6% between March and June 2026.
The finding is contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, which examined currency movements across 22 African countries outside the CFA franc zone.
The period brought a combination of higher energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty, capital outflows and stronger demand for the US dollar. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East initially placed pressure on African currencies, although the impact varied considerably between economies.
Nigeria’s experience stood out. While the naira weakened to N1,425/$ on March 9, data from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) show that the currency began strengthening soon afterwards. It closed at N1,390.50/$ on March 10 and N1,387/$ by March 31.
The recovery gathered pace over the following months. The naira closed at N1,365/$ on August 3 and N1,360.15/$ on August 12. By August 24, it had reached N1,349.99/$ before ending the month at N1,335.50/$.
The currency closed at N1,329/$ on September 1 and reached N1,320/$ on September 7. It ended September at N1,329.50/$ and closed October 7 at N1,332.75/$.
The October 7 rate was N92.25 stronger than the March 9 level, representing an appreciation of approximately 6.5%. That longer-period comparison is separate from the World Bank’s March-to-June measurement, but illustrates the naira’s movement after its March low.
The bigger African picture was considerably more uneven.
Seven of the 22 currencies assessed by the World Bank recorded maximum depreciations of more than 5% during the period. Ghana’s cedi recorded the sharpest decline among the highlighted currencies, falling by as much as 10%.
South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia and Eswatini recorded maximum declines of up to 7.2%, while the currencies of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda fell by 6% and 5%, respectively.
The World Bank linked the different outcomes partly to the structure of individual economies and their external positions.
Nigeria’s position as a major crude oil exporter provided some support as higher oil prices increased export earnings and foreign exchange inflows. Angola benefited from the same rise in crude prices, while South Africa gained from stronger demand for gold and platinum.
Energy-importing economies faced a different challenge. Rising oil and other energy prices increased import bills and demand for US dollars, while countries with limited foreign exchange buffers and high debt-service obligations faced additional strain.
Capital reallocation away from emerging and frontier markets also added to depreciation pressures as geopolitical uncertainty intensified. At the same time, higher fertilizer and other agricultural input costs contributed to imported inflation.
The World Bank further noted that depreciation can increase fiscal vulnerabilities in countries with significant dollar-denominated debt because the local-currency cost of servicing external obligations rises.
By August, the naira was among the currencies that had recovered from the pressure experienced earlier in the year. Only 10 of the 22 currencies monitored remained weaker than their end-February positions.
Ghana’s cedi remained 2.5% below its end-February level, Uganda’s currency was 3.1% weaker, while South Sudan recorded one of the largest remaining declines at 5.5%. Nigeria and Angola were among the economies where stronger crude oil receipts helped cushion exchange-rate pressures.
The currency performance also comes as the World Bank improves its outlook for Nigeria’s economy.
The bank has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.3%, compared with 4.0% in 2025, and projects growth of 4.4% in both 2027 and 2028.
The latest currency figures therefore place the naira in a notable position within the World Bank’s African assessment: it was exposed to the same global shocks affecting the continent, but its maximum second-quarter depreciation was limited to 2.6%, followed by a recovery that carried the currency substantially above its March weakness.
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