By Dr Yoroms
On a visit to London and got to know the outcome of the presidential results in Nigeria I felt the need to submit this piece for the public to understand President Jonathan’s ordeal. Every political leader would like to leave office honourably and satisfactorily. After the first tenure a second tenure is to crown his effort. However, some have not been opportuned to reach the second tenure. One example from the US was that of President Jimmy Carter.
There are fifteen scenarios that really worked against President Jonathan. He is the first to exit office democratically.Balwa and Shagari were removed by coups .
The scenarios are discussed below:
The fantasy of office
President Jonathan was carried away by the fantasy of office, and assumed some goose didn’t like him. He kept saying that there were fifth columnists in his government. The luxury of office like ‘Alice in wonders land’ did not allow him to take prompt action. He forgot the limit of time in office.
President Jonathan was carried away by the fantasy of office, and assumed some goose didn’t like him. He kept saying that there were fifth columnists in his government. The luxury of office like ‘Alice in wonders land’ did not allow him to take prompt action. He forgot the limit of time in office.
Procrastination
There were several national issues that required swift and precise actions but he remained indecisive, not willing to offend any interests. Though a gazette on downsizing of parastatals was issued f they are still intact and getting revenues.
There were several national issues that required swift and precise actions but he remained indecisive, not willing to offend any interests. Though a gazette on downsizing of parastatals was issued f they are still intact and getting revenues.
The Security Question
He was confused from the beginning and left the Boko Haram question hanging till the period of election, making the society to think that he was playing politics with security. There will always be fifth columnist in any government. It is left for the government to be bold enough to pull the bull by the horn.
He was confused from the beginning and left the Boko Haram question hanging till the period of election, making the society to think that he was playing politics with security. There will always be fifth columnist in any government. It is left for the government to be bold enough to pull the bull by the horn.
Corruption
Corruption is a menace everywhere. The challenge is how he addressed it .He was weak in driving firm actions on corruption. He tolerated and accommodated corrupt officers unlike Obasanjo did to Bode George and Afolabi Sunday. EFCC has done a lot of prosecution but for the courts legal barriers. Even though the Chief Justice told him that corruption is a mere thievery he is not just the head of the Executive but the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and he should interrogate the context. Lamorde in the EFCC tried to re-invent the Ribadu legacy but the presidential support was too moralistic and weak.
Mismanagement of PDP Political Crisis
The crisis in the ruling party was a great disservice to Jonathan. The Bamanga wanted to control the governors. In the presidential system after elections the parties slide to the back stage. Unfortunately, President Jonathan paid too much due respect to Alhaji Bamanga eldership and watched helplessly as the party went down the drain.
Corruption is a menace everywhere. The challenge is how he addressed it .He was weak in driving firm actions on corruption. He tolerated and accommodated corrupt officers unlike Obasanjo did to Bode George and Afolabi Sunday. EFCC has done a lot of prosecution but for the courts legal barriers. Even though the Chief Justice told him that corruption is a mere thievery he is not just the head of the Executive but the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and he should interrogate the context. Lamorde in the EFCC tried to re-invent the Ribadu legacy but the presidential support was too moralistic and weak.
Mismanagement of PDP Political Crisis
The crisis in the ruling party was a great disservice to Jonathan. The Bamanga wanted to control the governors. In the presidential system after elections the parties slide to the back stage. Unfortunately, President Jonathan paid too much due respect to Alhaji Bamanga eldership and watched helplessly as the party went down the drain.
Did he read The Prince?
May be he never read the prince. Even democrats aspiring to lead read The Prince .Politics is about power. Power is who gets what when and how, and in the process it is the authoritative allocation of resources. ‘The Prince’ sets out characteristics for a political leader to do, whether a dictator or democrat.
Imbalance in Appointments
Immediately President Jonathan got his election in 2011 he forgot the balancing political zones. The South west was abandoned and forgotten. So also the middle Belt (the North Central).He concentrated his attention on Northwest which rarely gave him 25%. From the 2015 election the result was worst off from the Northwest compared to 2011.
PDP went to sleep after 2011
Immediately PDP won the 2011 election it went to sleep. The historical nostalgia that opposition politics has never been strong in Nigeria was their making. It was the greatest mistake to make in modern politics.
Failure of Personal Research
He failed to take advice outside the box and did not carry out personal research. Some intellectuals tried to offer free advice but were shun by those in the corridor of power, as academic hawkers.
Underestimation of Providence
I think too that he also underestimated the process and providential calculus that brought him into power. Moses asked to know why God asked him lead Israel out of Egypt. God has to explain the reason d’être .Musa told God he was not competent. God promised to back him up. Moses did not jump at it. Did Jonathan ask God for clarity and work according to God’s purpose?
The Powerful Party Members Back Out
The critical turning point was the detaching of senior party members from him. Obasanjo set the ball rolling. And most retired senior military leaders and politicians followed. They know military coup is not fashionable but a strong retired military politician (militician?) needs support to wrestle power from a political neophyte before a ragtag NCOs overturn our democracy. In the UK, 2013 I met General Haliru Akilu who broke the news of Obasanjo’s letter to President Jonathan, to me. He gave me money to put wifi in my wife’s Ipad to read home news when he saw that I was ignorant. On my return home I knew the game was up for President Jonathan.
Reliance on the west and the US
Mistakenly he relied too much on US/Western European. He did not understand the complex dynamics of how both international and domestic politics interplay. He said in forums President Obama respected him but had the same at home. Nigerians prefer a president that is respected at home. When the west abandoned him for signing the samesex bill into law it was too late to regain the home front. A leader must earn respect at home not abroad.
Government management team
The cabinet was divided. Ministers were not on the same page with the presidency. Obasanjo in his first tenure set up General Danjuma Committee that gave him a good cabinet. This was important because he just came out of prison. Jonathan neglected this as a new man on the job.
Understanding politics and societies
The president did not exercise his intellectual capability enough. Maybe it is because of his area of specialization which a Nigerianist Professor Paden expressed at a seminar in Stuttgart. The new presidency should reconsider the recommendation of Justice Uwais Committee for the re-establishment of the Centre for Democratic Studies to focus on the political education of our elites
The Behaviour of the first lady
The first Lady also did a lot of damage to the president. In African if your husband was elected president it is not the wife. The wife earns her respect but she must not cross bounds. Madam Patience did a lot and it hurts the return of the husband to power.
PDP and Imposition of candidates
President Jonathan watched helplessly how candidates were imposed against party rules. Aggrieved were not listened to.
President Jonathan watched helplessly how candidates were imposed against party rules. Aggrieved were not listened to.
Conclusion
Buhari must learn early enough to avoid these pitfalls. He is elected as the President of Nigerian and not for APC, Muslim or external agents. If he was a dictator he now knows it can’t work again. If he is a religious bigot as Obasanjo tagged in 2007 (which did a lot of damage to his political career) he now knows that religion does not work in a plural society. Above all we appreciate the foresight of el-Rufai to have encouraged Buhari to recon test when he had given up on Nigerian politics .He has become Abraham Lincoln of our time. At least Chief Obafemi Awolowo‘s dream has been achieved. However, Buhari as a strategist must be prepared for eventualities from Niger Delta.
Dr. Gani Joses Yoroms
Associate Professor, International Relations and Comparative Politics
Bingham University Nigeria, and Senior Fellow, National Defence College Nigeria
No.20 Salter Street, Rotherhithe, London, SE16 5PR, UK. Tel: 07467439752
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